{"id":27774,"date":"2026-03-08T11:03:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T10:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/?p=27774"},"modified":"2026-03-08T11:03:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T10:03:12","slug":"la-doctrine-trump-quand-la-guerre-devient-un-modele-economique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/index.php\/2026\/03\/08\/la-doctrine-trump-quand-la-guerre-devient-un-modele-economique\/","title":{"rendered":"La doctrine Trump : Quand la guerre devient un mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique"},"content":{"rendered":"

Adnan Hmidan<\/a>, 7 mars 2026.<\/strong> Les explosions qui r\u00e9sonnent actuellement en Iran, au Liban et dans certaines r\u00e9gions du Golfe ne sont pas seulement le bruit d’une nouvelle guerre au Moyen-Orient. Elles refl\u00e8tent aussi une mentalit\u00e9 politique particuli\u00e8re, qui consid\u00e8re le conflit non comme un dernier recours, mais comme un instrument de n\u00e9gociation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Iran, mars 2026.<\/p><\/div>\n

Pour comprendre l’escalade actuelle, il est n\u00e9cessaire de d\u00e9passer le langage traditionnel de la diplomatie et de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9. Il faut plut\u00f4t tenter de saisir la vision du monde de l’homme qui occupe actuellement la Maison-Blanche : Donald Trump.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Dans l’univers politique de Trump, la guerre est rarement envisag\u00e9e en termes moraux ou humanitaires. Elle est appr\u00e9hend\u00e9e \u00e0 travers le prisme du rapport de force, du marchandage et des arrangements. Le vocabulaire de la trag\u00e9die c\u00e8de la place \u00e0 celui de la transaction.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Lorsqu’une frappe isra\u00e9lienne, pr\u00e9tendument soutenue par les \u00c9tats-Unis, a touch\u00e9 une \u00e9cole primaire de l’est de l’Iran il y a quelques jours, tuant des dizaines d’enfants, la communaut\u00e9 internationale s’attendait aux rituels diplomatiques habituels : d\u00e9clarations de pr\u00e9occupation, expressions de regret, peut-\u00eatre un appel \u00e0 la retenue. Rien de tout cela n’a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait sous une forme significative. Mais ce silence est r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Pour un dirigeant fa\u00e7onn\u00e9 par la culture des transactions immobili\u00e8res \u00e0 haut risque, pr\u00e9senter des excuses a un co\u00fbt strat\u00e9gique. Des excuses impliquent une prise de responsabilit\u00e9, et la responsabilit\u00e9 affaiblit le pouvoir de n\u00e9gociation. Dans la logique de la politique transactionnelle, maintenir sa domination exige de projeter une image de certitude et de refuser toute vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 morale.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Une vision marchande du monde<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Les th\u00e9ories traditionnelles des relations internationales partent du principe que les \u00c9tats recherchent la stabilit\u00e9, l’\u00e9quilibre des puissances et des alliances pr\u00e9visibles. La vision du monde de Trump remet en question ce postulat.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Issu du monde de la sp\u00e9culation immobili\u00e8re, il semble percevoir le syst\u00e8me international moins comme une communaut\u00e9 d’\u00c9tats que comme un march\u00e9 concurrentiel. Les pays sont assimil\u00e9s \u00e0 des actifs. Les alliances \u00e0 des contrats. Les conflits se transforment en n\u00e9gociations aux enjeux consid\u00e9rablement accrus.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Dans ce contexte, le monde ressemble davantage \u00e0 une salle des ventes qu’\u00e0 un ordre diplomatique. L’objectif n’est pas un \u00e9quilibre durable, mais l’obtention d’un maximum de concessions.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Il n’y a donc ni alli\u00e9s permanents ni ennemis permanents\u00a0; seulement des accords lucratifs et des arrangements co\u00fbteux qui n’attendent qu’\u00e0 \u00eatre ren\u00e9goci\u00e9s.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La s\u00e9curit\u00e9 elle-m\u00eame devient une marchandise.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Beyrouth, mars 2026.<\/p><\/div>\n

La marchandisation de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pendant des d\u00e9cennies, les \u00c9tats-Unis se sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s comme les garants de la stabilit\u00e9 internationale. Pourtant, sous Trump, cette garantie prend de plus en plus la forme d’un service payant.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les \u00c9tats du Golfe illustrent clairement cette dynamique. Ils sont trait\u00e9s moins comme des partenaires strat\u00e9giques que comme des clients dans une relation de protection. Les engagements en mati\u00e8re de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sont abord\u00e9s sous un angle financier. La pr\u00e9sence militaire devient un levier. La loyaut\u00e9 politique se mue en atout transactionnel.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Dans un tel contexte, l’instabilit\u00e9 peut paradoxalement servir des int\u00e9r\u00eats strat\u00e9giques. Les tensions persistantes renforcent la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 l’\u00e9gard d’une protection ext\u00e9rieure, garantissant ainsi la p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La guerre comme moyen de n\u00e9gociation<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u2019approche de Trump face \u00e0 l\u2019Iran illustre cette logique.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019escalade ne vise pas n\u00e9cessairement une victoire militaire d\u00e9cisive. Elle consiste plut\u00f4t \u00e0 faire monter les ench\u00e8res avant m\u00eame le d\u00e9but des n\u00e9gociations. Frappes militaires, pressions \u00e9conomiques et man\u0153uvres politiques risqu\u00e9es servent d\u2019outils pour accro\u00eetre son influence.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

En langage commercial, il s\u2019agit d\u2019une strat\u00e9gie destin\u00e9e \u00e0 rench\u00e9rir le compromis.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Le danger est \u00e9vident\u00a0: lorsque la guerre s\u2019int\u00e8gre au processus de n\u00e9gociation, le co\u00fbt humain passe au second plan face \u00e0 l\u2019avantage strat\u00e9gique per\u00e7u.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les pertes civiles, les villes d\u00e9vast\u00e9es et l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale risquent de devenir des variables collat\u00e9rales d\u2019un calcul g\u00e9opolitique.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Le risque d\u2019un pouvoir personnalis\u00e9<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Cette approche introduit un autre danger\u00a0: la personnalisation de la politique internationale.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Comme l\u2019a soulign\u00e9 Edward Luce, chroniqueur au Financial Times<\/i>, la stabilit\u00e9 mondiale se fragilise lorsque les d\u00e9cisions g\u00e9opolitiques sont moins guid\u00e9es par un consensus institutionnel que par l\u2019instinct personnel et le calcul politique.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les politiques peuvent changer brusquement. Les alliances peuvent \u00eatre remises en question du jour au lendemain. Les d\u00e9cisions strat\u00e9giques peuvent \u00eatre influenc\u00e9es par des pressions \u00e9lectorales ou des discours politiques personnels plut\u00f4t que par une planification \u00e0 long terme. Il en r\u00e9sulte un monde o\u00f9 l’impr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 devient elle-m\u00eame la caract\u00e9ristique centrale de la politique mondiale.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Une le\u00e7on r\u00e9gionale difficile<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pour de nombreux \u00c9tats du Moyen-Orient, la crise actuelle est un rappel brutal.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e9pendre de garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 ext\u00e9rieures a toujours comport\u00e9 des risques, mais ces risques sont consid\u00e9rablement accrus lorsque le garant envisage la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 avant tout sous un angle transactionnel.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Le pr\u00e9tendu \u00ab parapluie am\u00e9ricain \u00bb pourrait finalement servir moins de bouclier que d’outil de n\u00e9gociation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

S’il y a une le\u00e7on \u00e0 tirer du conflit actuel, c’est peut-\u00eatre que la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale ne peut \u00eatre externalis\u00e9e ind\u00e9finiment. Une s\u00e9curit\u00e9 durable exige une r\u00e9silience interne, une coop\u00e9ration r\u00e9gionale et une ind\u00e9pendance vis-\u00e0-vis des calculs changeants des puissances mondiales.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La vraie question est peut-\u00eatre la suivante : Et si les explosions qui secouent le Moyen-Orient n’\u00e9taient pas seulement le fruit de rivalit\u00e9s g\u00e9opolitiques ?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Et si elles faisaient aussi partie d’une strat\u00e9gie de n\u00e9gociation ?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Si cela s’av\u00e8re ne serait-ce qu’en partie vrai, alors la r\u00e9gion n’assiste pas simplement \u00e0 une nouvelle guerre.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Elle assiste au moment o\u00f9 la guerre elle-m\u00eame devient un mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Article original en anglais sur Middle East Monitor<\/a> \/ Traduction MR<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Adnan Hmidan, 7 mars 2026. Les explosions qui r\u00e9sonnent actuellement en Iran, au Liban et dans certaines r\u00e9gions du Golfe ne sont pas seulement le bruit d’une nouvelle guerre au Lire la suite →<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":27777,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,2],"tags":[99,458],"class_list":["post-27774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","category-articles","tag-imperialisme","tag-plan-trump"],"yoast_head":"\nLa doctrine Trump : Quand la guerre devient un mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique - International Solidarity Movement - ISM-France<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/index.php\/2026\/03\/08\/la-doctrine-trump-quand-la-guerre-devient-un-modele-economique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La doctrine Trump : Quand la guerre devient un mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique - International Solidarity Movement - ISM-France\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Adnan Hmidan, 7 mars 2026. 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