{"id":25725,"date":"2025-12-20T18:05:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T17:05:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/?p=25725"},"modified":"2025-12-20T18:05:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T17:05:37","slug":"liban-leffondrement-silencieux-des-barrieres-a-la-non-normalisation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/index.php\/2025\/12\/20\/liban-leffondrement-silencieux-des-barrieres-a-la-non-normalisation\/","title":{"rendered":"Liban\u00a0: l\u2019effondrement silencieux des barri\u00e8res \u00e0 la non-normalisation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ibrahim Al-Amine, 15 d\u00e9cembre 2025.<\/strong>– L\u2019assassinat par Isra\u00ebl du commandant de la r\u00e9sistance Haytham Ali Tabatabai n\u2019a fait que confirmer qu\u2019un an plus tard, le Hezbollah a subi des pertes qui touchent profond\u00e9ment ses hauts grad\u00e9s. Militairement, le parti s\u2019est adapt\u00e9. Politiquement, cependant, un nouveau front s\u2019est ouvert au Liban et constitue un d\u00e9fi en soi.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

18 d\u00e9cembre 2005.- Plus de 15 frappes de l’arm\u00e9e isra\u00e9lienne ont \u00e9t\u00e9 recens\u00e9es dans des zones du Sud-Liban, du fleuve Litani, et de la Bekaa. Un message du r\u00e9gime sioniste adress\u00e9 au parlement libanais, r\u00e9uni \u00e0 ce moment-l\u00e0, pour faire comprendre comment Isra\u00ebl et l’Occident lib\u00e9ral con\u00e7oivent la d\u00e9mocratie.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n

Le Hezbollah \u00e9vite toujours toute confrontation interne, sachant que de nombreuses forces politiques libanaises cherchent \u00e0 d\u00e9tourner l\u2019attention de l\u2019occupation vers un conflit int\u00e9rieur. Mais cette retenue a ses limites. La pression s\u2019accro\u00eet \u00e0 mesure que des forces influentes au sein de l\u2019\u00c9tat s\u2019emploient ouvertement \u00e0 satisfaire les exigences am\u00e9ricaines et saoudiennes, tandis que les alli\u00e9s d\u2019Isra\u00ebl l\u00e8vent leurs derni\u00e8res h\u00e9sitations quant \u00e0 la d\u00e9claration ou \u00e0 la concr\u00e9tisation de leurs relations avec Tel-Aviv.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ce qui appara\u00eet comme des gestes individuels ou imprudents en faveur de la normalisation est devenu une orientation politique coordonn\u00e9e. Avec le soutien des \u00c9tats-Unis, des efforts sont d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s pour consolider la normalisation et r\u00e9viser les lois criminalisant tout contact avec Isra\u00ebl.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ceux qui \u0153uvrent dans ce sens se r\u00e9partissent en deux groupes\u00a0: l\u2019un, id\u00e9ologiquement attach\u00e9 \u00e0 la normalisation, et l\u2019autre, cherchant \u00e0 convaincre Washington de sa d\u00e9termination \u00e0 affronter le Hezbollah s\u2019il obtient le contr\u00f4le total de l\u2019\u00c9tat. Leur point commun\u00a0? L\u2019id\u00e9e qu\u2019aucune r\u00e9sistance populaire ou politique s\u00e9rieuse ne subsiste pour entraver cette trajectoire.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ils puisent leur confiance dans la r\u00e9action discr\u00e8te suscit\u00e9e par les rencontres publiques avec des responsables isra\u00e9liens \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger et par la pr\u00e9sence de personnalit\u00e9s isra\u00e9liennes sur les plateformes m\u00e9diatiques libanaises. Ils en concluent que leurs actions resteront sans r\u00e9ponse, ce qui les encourage \u00e0 aller plus loin.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ce d\u00e9fi ne concerne pas uniquement le Hezbollah. Il concerne tous ceux qui croient encore \u00e0 la r\u00e9sistance \u00e0 l\u2019occupation et au rejet de la normalisation. Pourtant, on observe peu de signes de r\u00e9ponse politique organis\u00e9e. Le pouvoir judiciaire demeure paralys\u00e9, subordonn\u00e9 \u00e0 une autorit\u00e9 politique qui sous-estime, voire ignore, les cons\u00e9quences de ce changement.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Parall\u00e8lement, Isra\u00ebl reste concentr\u00e9 sur le Hezbollah. Les services de renseignement isra\u00e9liens ne se contentent pas de suivre les activit\u00e9s du parti depuis la guerre, mais tentent \u00e9galement d’anticiper sa prochaine phase. Dans ce contexte, l’incertitude r\u00e8gne.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Depuis des mois, m\u00eame les proches du Hezbollah n’ont pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 obtenir de r\u00e9ponses claires sur les activit\u00e9s du parti. Les affirmations p\u00e9remptoires des m\u00e9dias quant \u00e0 son orientation sont donc peu fiables.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e9anmoins, le contexte g\u00e9n\u00e9ral exerce une pression sur le parti. La capacit\u00e9 d’Isra\u00ebl \u00e0 infliger de lourdes pertes ces deux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, conjugu\u00e9e au silence du Hezbollah concernant les enqu\u00eates internes, a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 alimenter le discours isra\u00e9lien de contr\u00f4le.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Or, il est largement admis que la donne ne peut changer que par des actions contraignant Isra\u00ebl \u00e0 reconsid\u00e9rer son agression. C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment pourquoi Isra\u00ebl s\u2019attache non seulement \u00e0 entraver la reconstruction du Hezbollah, mais aussi \u00e0 pr\u00e9server sa capacit\u00e9 de frappe pr\u00e9ventive.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Au sein du Hezbollah, le silence s\u2019installe. L\u2019ambigu\u00eft\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique d\u2019antan a fait place \u00e0 une opacit\u00e9 quasi totale. Cette situation complique la planification isra\u00e9lienne et p\u00e8se sur la base du parti. Ses partisans comprennent que la dissuasion ne peut \u00eatre r\u00e9tablie sans une confrontation avec Isra\u00ebl, malgr\u00e9 la mont\u00e9e des pressions internes.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Il ne faut cependant pas s\u2019attendre \u00e0 un revirement spectaculaire sur le plan int\u00e9rieur. Le Hezbollah ne consid\u00e8re pas le gouvernement actuel comme un alli\u00e9, mais n\u2019a aucune intention de l\u2019abandonner pour le moment. Les raisons sont strat\u00e9giques, la principale \u00e9tant la d\u00e9cision imminente concernant la tenue des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives en mai.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ces \u00e9lections constitueront un test crucial. La pression am\u00e9ricano-saoudienne s\u2019intensifie pour bloquer toute personnalit\u00e9 dispos\u00e9e \u00e0 coop\u00e9rer \u00e9lectoralement avec le Hezbollah, en particulier parmi les figures chiites proches du pr\u00e9sident du Parlement, Nabih Berri.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Le Hezbollah reste confiant dans la solidit\u00e9 de son noyau dur de soutien. L\u2019incertitude r\u00e9side ailleurs\u00a0: dans l\u2019absence, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, d\u2019un cadre politique clair d\u00e9finissant comment le parti entend aborder la prochaine phase \u2013 au sein de l\u2019\u00c9tat, au Parlement et sous une pression ext\u00e9rieure soutenue.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Article original en anglais sur Al-Akhbar<\/a> \/ Traduction MR<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

La version anglaise de cet article est une traduction remani\u00e9e d’un article initialement publi\u00e9 en arabe<\/a>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ibrahim Al-Amine, 15 d\u00e9cembre 2025.– L\u2019assassinat par Isra\u00ebl du commandant de la r\u00e9sistance Haytham Ali Tabatabai n\u2019a fait que confirmer qu\u2019un an plus tard, le Hezbollah a subi des pertes Lire la suite →<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":25727,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,2],"tags":[76,94,3],"class_list":["post-25725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","category-articles","tag-liban","tag-normalisation","tag-resistance"],"yoast_head":"\nLiban\u00a0: l\u2019effondrement silencieux des barri\u00e8res \u00e0 la non-normalisation - International Solidarity Movement - ISM-France<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/index.php\/2025\/12\/20\/liban-leffondrement-silencieux-des-barrieres-a-la-non-normalisation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Liban\u00a0: l\u2019effondrement silencieux des barri\u00e8res \u00e0 la non-normalisation - 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