{"id":12621,"date":"2024-06-21T11:45:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-21T09:45:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/?p=12621"},"modified":"2024-06-21T11:45:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-21T09:45:09","slug":"israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/index.php\/2024\/06\/21\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Isra\u00ebl’ a six choix \u00ab difficiles \u00bb face au Hezbollah, sans garantie"},"content":{"rendered":"

Al Mayadeen, 21 juin 2024<\/strong>. Dans un long article paru dans le journal isra\u00e9lien Haaretz<\/i>, l’ancien conseiller adjoint \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale Chuck Freilich a \u00e9voqu\u00e9 les risques importants auxquels ‘Isra\u00ebl’ serait confront\u00e9 en cas de guerre \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle avec le Liban, soulignant qu’elle pourrait conduire \u00e0 une guerre sur plusieurs fronts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

L’ancien responsable isra\u00e9lien a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que la capacit\u00e9 du Hamas \u00e0 r\u00e9sister \u00e0 l’agression isra\u00e9lienne massive, ainsi que la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration<\/a> de la position strat\u00e9gique d\u00a0\u00bbIsra\u00ebl au niveau r\u00e9gional, ont renforc\u00e9 la confiance de l’Axe de la R\u00e9sistance, augmentant probablement leur volont\u00e9 de prendre de plus grands risques. Il a soulign\u00e9 que l\u2019Axe croit pouvoir r\u00e9sister \u00e0 la sup\u00e9riorit\u00e9 conventionnelle d\u2019’Isra\u00ebl’ et m\u00eame la vaincre.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

L’avertissement de Freilich intervient dans le contexte de la pr\u00e9sentation des principales options disponibles pour ‘Isra\u00ebl’ dans sa confrontation en cours avec le Hezbollah. Il a soulign\u00e9 six options : poursuivre le cap actuel, un cessez-le-feu unilat\u00e9ral, une diplomatie coercitive, une initiative diplomatique, une op\u00e9ration limit\u00e9e et une op\u00e9ration majeure.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Chaque option, a-t-il ajout\u00e9, doit \u00eatre \u00e9valu\u00e9e en fonction de sa probabilit\u00e9 de succ\u00e8s militaire et diplomatique et de ses ramifications locales. La question la plus importante est de savoir si cette option est susceptible de conduire \u00e0 une am\u00e9lioration tangible de la position strat\u00e9gique globale d\u2019’Isra\u00ebl’ ou si \u00ab nous paierons un lourd tribut et finirons par revenir \u00e0 la case d\u00e9part<\/a> \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Six options \u00ab difficiles \u00bb, sans r\u00e9sultat certain<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

L’article approfondit les d\u00e9tails des six options \u00ab difficiles \u00bb pour ‘Isra\u00ebl’ dans toute confrontation \u00e0 venir avec le Hezbollah :<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Poursuite du cap actuel<\/strong> : Freilich a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que, jusqu’\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, ‘Isra\u00ebl’ et le Hezbollah ont pris soin de rester en dessous du \u00ab seuil de l’escalade \u00bb. Il a ajout\u00e9 que \u00ab les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts caus\u00e9s aux villes, aux villages et aux kibboutzim du nord d’Isra\u00ebl sont importants (photo ci-dessus) et s’aggravent, avec environ 60.000 personnes \u00e9vacu\u00e9es incapables de rentrer chez elles pendant plus de huit mois \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Il convient de noter que selon les m\u00e9dias isra\u00e9liens, le nombre de personnes \u00e9vacu\u00e9es d\u00e9passe les 250.000<\/a> dans le nord d\u00a0\u00bbIsra\u00ebl’.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Freilich a en outre soulign\u00e9 que \u00ab l’\u00e9quilibre de la terreur \u00bb avec le Hezbollah, \u00ab apr\u00e8s la guerre de 2006, s’est maintenu pendant 16 ann\u00e9es compl\u00e8tes. Si un retour \u00e0 ce type de politique est susceptible de conduire \u00e0 un cessez-le-feu \u00e0 long terme, il ne devrait pas \u00eatre compl\u00e8tement exclu. \u00bb<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Cessez-le-feu unilat\u00e9ral\u00a0<\/strong>:\u00a0il a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que cela serait fait dans l’espoir \u00ab d’isoler le Hezbollah \u00bb et de le forcer \u00e0 cessez-le-feu tout en renfor\u00e7ant la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 internationale d’une op\u00e9ration militaire isra\u00e9lienne si n\u00e9cessaire. Il a toutefois not\u00e9 qu’un cessez-le-feu isra\u00e9lien serait consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un signe de faiblesse et serait politiquement difficile \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre, en particulier pendant la guerre \u00e0 Gaza.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Diplomatie coercitive<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0\u00e0 la suite d’un cessez-le-feu unilat\u00e9ral, ‘Isra\u00ebl’ adresserait un avertissement au Hezbollah lui demandant de cesser ses attaques dans un certain d\u00e9lai, sinon ‘Isra\u00ebl’ frapperait. Cette option a l\u2019avantage de renforcer la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 internationale, mais l\u2019administration Biden s\u2019y opposerait, surtout \u00e0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections. Le Hezbollah et l\u2019Axe de la R\u00e9sistance le rejetteront probablement, ce qui fera perdre \u00e0 ‘Isra\u00ebl’ l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment de surprise et augmentera le risque d\u2019une guerre \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Initiative diplomatique<\/strong>\u00a0: selon Freilich, c’est la meilleure option, mais la probabilit\u00e9 de parvenir et de maintenir un accord au fil du temps n’est pas \u00e9lev\u00e9e<\/a>. Il a \u00e9galement mentionn\u00e9 qu’un tel arrangement exigerait qu\u00a0\u00bbIsra\u00ebl’ fasse \u00ab des concessions territoriales le long de la fronti\u00e8re \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Op\u00e9ration limit\u00e9e<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0l’objectif de cette option serait de \u00ab restaurer la dissuasion isra\u00e9lienne \u00bb, obligeant le Hezbollah \u00e0 \u00ab accepter un cessez-le-feu et \u00e0 s’\u00e9loigner de la fronti\u00e8re afin que les r\u00e9sidents du nord puissent rentrer chez eux \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Cependant, Freilich a not\u00e9 qu’il n’y a \u00ab aucune garantie qu’une op\u00e9ration limit\u00e9e le restera ou qu’Isra\u00ebl atteindra ses objectifs militaires. Il a soulign\u00e9 que tous les n\u00e9gociations avec le Hezbollah depuis les ann\u00e9es 1990, limit\u00e9es ou non, se sont termin\u00e9es de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9cevante pour Isra\u00ebl, l’opinion publique \u00e9tant lasse de promesses r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9es d’op\u00e9rations limit\u00e9es am\u00e9liorant la situation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Op\u00e9ration majeure<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0Freilich a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que le but de cette importante d\u00e9monstration de force serait de provoquer un changement radical de la situation. Cependant, cette option comporte de grands risques et pourrait conduire \u00e0 une guerre sur plusieurs fronts. Il a soulign\u00e9 que \u00ab le front int\u00e9rieur, l\u2019\u00e9conomie et les capacit\u00e9s militaires vitales d\u2019Isra\u00ebl subiraient de graves coups \u00bb. La guerre \u00e0 Gaza semblerait \u00ab p\u00e2le \u00bb en comparaison, alors qu\u2019’Isra\u00ebl’ n\u2019a pas encore atteint ses objectifs militaires l\u00e0-bas.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Il a not\u00e9 qu’une telle guerre entra\u00eenerait une mont\u00e9e du sentiment anti-‘Isra\u00ebl’ aux \u00c9tats-Unis et dans le monde, ce qui pourrait affecter le r\u00e9sultat serr\u00e9 des \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines. De plus, beaucoup soup\u00e7onneraient que les actions d’ ‘Isra\u00ebl’ \u00e9taient motiv\u00e9es par le besoin de Netanyahu de poursuivre les hostilit\u00e9s pour retarder les \u00e9lections et sa chute politique, quelle qu\u2019en soit la raison objective. La crise politique interne isra\u00e9lienne actuelle rendrait la gestion de la guerre particuli\u00e8rement difficile.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Freilich a conclu en soulignant l’\u00e9chec d\u00a0\u00bbIsra\u00ebl \u00e0 emp\u00eacher l’accumulation de capacit\u00e9s<\/a> du Hezbollah. Il a ajout\u00e9 que le d\u00e9sir de porter un coup fort maintenant est tout \u00e0 fait compr\u00e9hensible, mais que \u00ab la politique isra\u00e9lienne doit \u00eatre soigneusement calcul\u00e9e, refl\u00e9tant un m\u00e9lange de ces six options \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Il a soulign\u00e9 que \u00ab\u00a0la guerre report\u00e9e pourrait \u00eatre celle qui ne se concr\u00e9tisera jamais sur le terrain, ce qui est la meilleure des guerres\u00a0\u00bb. Par cons\u00e9quent, les colons isra\u00e9liens doivent vivre avec la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 actuelle, une \u00ab issue douloureuse \u00bb, en particulier pour les colons du nord qui \u00ab devront choisir entre retourner chez eux sous une menace constante ou d\u00e9m\u00e9nager ailleurs \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Article original sur Al-Mayadeen<\/a> \/ Traduction MR<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/em><\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Al Mayadeen, 21 juin 2024. Dans un long article paru dans le journal isra\u00e9lien Haaretz, l’ancien conseiller adjoint \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale Chuck Freilich a \u00e9voqu\u00e9 les risques importants auxquels Lire la suite →<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":12622,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,2],"tags":[228,76],"class_list":["post-12621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","category-articles","tag-axe-de-la-resistance","tag-liban"],"yoast_head":"\n'Isra\u00ebl' a six choix \u00ab difficiles \u00bb face au Hezbollah, sans garantie - International Solidarity Movement - ISM-France<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/index.php\/2024\/06\/21\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"'Isra\u00ebl' a six choix \u00ab difficiles \u00bb face au Hezbollah, sans garantie - International Solidarity Movement - ISM-France\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Al Mayadeen, 21 juin 2024. Dans un long article paru dans le journal isra\u00e9lien Haaretz, l’ancien conseiller adjoint \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale Chuck Freilich a \u00e9voqu\u00e9 les risques importants auxquels Lire la suite →\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/index.php\/2024\/06\/21\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"International Solidarity Movement - ISM-France\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-06-21T09:45:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ismfrance.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/north-israel-burning.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1170\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"854\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"mru_01\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ISMFRANCE\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ISMFRANCE\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"mru_01\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/21\\\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/21\\\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"mru_01\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3c411eb72adfaae19c0dca1f41fae01d\"},\"headline\":\"‘Isra\u00ebl’ a six choix \u00ab difficiles \u00bb face au Hezbollah, sans garantie\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-06-21T09:45:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/21\\\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1072,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/21\\\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/north-israel-burning.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"Axe de la R\u00e9sistance\",\"Liban\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analyses\",\"Articles\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/21\\\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ismfrance.org\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/21\\\/israel-a-six-choix-difficiles-face-au-hezbollah-sans-garantie\\\/\",\"name\":\"'Isra\u00ebl' a six choix \u00ab difficiles \u00bb face au Hezbollah, sans garantie - 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